Down year could be boost we need

WATSEKA – A Chinese trade deal would likely give the soybean market a boost but so would a lower yield year.

This could be the case for 2019, although we likely won’t know the answers for at least a couple of months.

“We probably won’t see that until January,” said Merrill Crowley with Midwest Market Solutions in Watseka.

The upcoming December USDA report typically focuses more on the demand side of things, although Crowley won’t rule out yield information. He notes USDA has been “all over the board” this year.

A surprising bit of good news came this week when we did get decent sales that were badly needed. This shows signs of improvement, not only for soybeans but for corn as well.

Thanksgiving is typically not a good time for any of the grains but if we can push against that seasonality, we should see a better move up in prices.

Markets were down to start the week, breaking long-term support areas for December. If we can stay over that and add a little to it every day, the low may be in for corn. Soybeans also broke major support levels acting lethargic Tuesday and lower so far on Wednesday.

“If we go much lower, I would say the next support area is going to be around $9.00 so that’s not good news,” Crowley said.

Everyone is waiting to see if President Donald Trump can get something signed with China on trade. Also, last week’s USDA report didn’t tell us much. Regardless of how slow production is going down, each report seems to be a little less.

“The old traders used to tell me if stocks are going down or if the pile is shrinking, be a little more patient on your sales.”

Crowley doesn’t believe in paying storage in this market as he would sell across the scale and transfer risk to either buying the corn market back or buying calls. Basis is strong as we are seeing basis in areas where they have more corn harvested starting to erode.

“Right now, that’s out west but if the end user gets his needs, that basis is going to erode,” Crowley adds.

Crowley can be reached at his Watseka office: 815-432-2220.