View from the Cab: Keep the market bumps coming

By Kent Casson

Let’s hope the nice market gains we saw last week continue throughout the summer months.

The recent bump was supported by a couple of key drivers including reports of China purchasing 5-10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans and concerns over a hot and dry weather forecast for the following week.

As of my conversation with Aaron Curtis of MIDCO last Tuesday, there was no official flash sale announcement confirmed. An upcoming trade discussion meeting is planned with China and any confirmed purchases could be broadly bullish, according to Curtis, especially for soybeans.

Per the White House, China pledged 25 million metric tons with 12 million metric tons purchased last year so the gap remains an issue. Given last year’s weak demand, Curtis feels soybeans need a shot in the arm.

Everyone should keep an eye out west in the coming week with forecasted temperatures in the 100s and the duration of that heat will determine how much legs this market rally has.

The upcoming USDA crop report was expected to reflect tighter corn ending stocks tied to that quarterly stocks number and Curtis feels yield adjustments are unlikely in July given still decent crop ratings.

Our crops around here aren’t looking as bad as they did during all of that June rain but they aren’t perfect. Some soybean fields are still light green where water ran through or stood while other parts of the same field look great. Some farmers have been replanting beans while others are finishing wheat harvest depending on where they are located.

Corn is similar although I think corn appears more promising this year. Once the sunshine and warm weather set in over the past couple of weeks, the corn really took off and started to look good again.

As we speak, the crop dusters are buzzing the corn and soybean fields of Central Illinois to apply fungicide and insecticide. Early tassels were already spotted prior to the July 4 holiday for those growers who got their corn planted early back in April.

Now excuse me while I enter full summer fair mode as the Livingston County Fair is this week.