Wednesday report mostly negative

There were mixed results with a mostly negative reaction to Wednesday’s July 12 USDA report.

It wasn’t all bad as it was relative to pre-report expectations.

“There was a favorable adjustment lower for the corn yield to reflect the (June dry weather) stress today,” said Joe Camp of CommStock.

A four-bushel per acre reduction brings the USDA corn yield down from 181.5 last month to 177.5 bushels per acre this month. This was enough to pretty much all but offset the acreage surprise we received June 30.

Carryout estimates at the end of the day weren’t very far off from what had been anticipated.

“We had loftier expectations heading in to the report,” added Camp.

July WASDE numbers do not normally include these yield revisions, Camp points out.

The soybean yield remained unchanged at 52 bushels per acre from last month. That allows the carryout estimate to come in about 100 million above the average estimate which was considered negative for prices.

Illinois Crop Production update:

For Illinois, USDA released information on winter wheat Wednesday. Harvested area in 2023 is forecast at 780,000 acres, up 39 percent from the previous year. Winter wheat yield is forecast at 84 bushels per acre, up 5 bushels from 2022. Production is expected to reach 65.5 million bushels, up 48 percent from last year.