Report could include surprises

Could there be some surprises in Wednesday’s big USDA reports? A couple of market analysts think so.

USDA releases the much anticipated planting intentions numbers and stocks information this week. The first quarter saw a large amount of animals being fed and if that continues, it should bring stocks down fairly well.

“Those stocks reports are where we really seem to get surprises,” admits Merrill Crowley of First Choice Commodities in Watseka.

Crowley notes that more times than not, selling into a report is better than trying to buy a report. He told The Central Illinois Farm Network this week we are actually getting a bit oversold on December corn on the charts. Old crop soybeans are hanging in there pretty well.

“In my opinion, corn is bearish,” Crowley said.

Markets have continued to move sideways this week ahead of the Wednesday reports waiting for USDA to throw some more fodder to decide which way they are going to move.

“USDA has had a real track record of surprises in their corn stocks numbers,” notes Arlan Suderman of StoneX.

There has been a tendency in the past couple of years to see stocks below expectations then USDA lowers production estimates at the end of the year.

Looking at anticipated demand for the year ahead, we need at least 90 million acres with a trend yield assuming there are no weather problems this summer in the Midwest.

“The private surveys coming out so far are saying farmers aren’t willing to plant 90 million acres, so the market has some work to do if that is the case,” added Suderman.