Attention turns to yields
NORMAL – Now that everyone knows the September USDA numbers, the focus turns to actual yields out in the field this fall.
“More importantly, we’ll see if the Chinese demand comes at us here,” said Curt Kimmel of Bates Commodities. “We’ve seen China only buy 132,000 tons of beans here and there so they need to step that up some.”
There is talk China might lower demand because pig prices aren’t very high.
“I think they’re still going to feed pigs but who knows,” Kimmel added.
Crop prices have been trading in a sideways pattern since April, although we are at the lower end. Things are much better than many had anticipated a year ago, however. For producers, the decision comes between storing and selling.
“There are a lot of empty bins out there not only on the farm but also at the elevator.”
Kimmel feels there is not going to be much harvest pressure. There were opportunities for early harvest bids up until this past week. The key is maintaining cash flow and re-owning grain to help pay the bills. Growers will face plenty of money management decisions over the next six months.
In Friday’s USDA report, old crop bean carryout went up 15 million bushels and they lowered crush last year so it carried into this year. Acreage actually went down for beans by about 400,000 acres and yield went up. The carryout number was 185 million bushels versus the 155 million at the last report.
On the corn side, last year’s demand was lowered with ending stocks increasing by about 60 million bushels. Corn acreage was raised but was only up to 93.3 from 92.7. Harvested corn acres were raised as well. The corn yield is slightly higher than last month.
The Illinois crop production information released Friday by USDA revealed corn planted area estimated at 11.0 million acres, down 3 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.8 million acres, is down 3 percent from 2020. Based on September 1 conditions, the Illinois corn yield is forecast at a record 214 bushels per acre, up 22 bushels from 2020. Production is forecast at 2.31 billion bushels, up 8 percent from last year’s production.
Planted area on soybeans is estimated at 10.60 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.55 million acres, is up 3 percent from 2020. Based on September 1 conditions, the Illinois soybean yield is forecast at a record 64 bushels per acre, up 5 bushels from 2020. Production is forecast at a record 675 million bushels, up 12 percent from 2020.