View from the Cab: What to expect

By: Kent Casson

As I stare across the frozen farm fields of Central Illinois, I can’t help but wonder what the coming season will bring.

Will crop prices remain strong? What about farmland values? Will yields hold up come harvest time? There are many uncertainties since we haven’t even put a crop in the ground yet and one of those includes input prices which have skyrocketed during the past several months.

A recent article from FarmWeek’s Daniel Grant of the Illinois Farm Bureau indicated there is not much relief in sight for high fertilizer prices. One product manager from GROWMARK indicated prices will likely stay elevated heading into the spring season due to the tight domestic market and various global factors.

As of Dec. 30, Illinois averaged $912 for urea, $579 for liquid nitrogen 28 percent, $801 for potash and $1,494 a ton for anhydrous ammonia. This information is courtesy of the Illinois Production Cost Report.

A poll released by Purdue University in December showed over half of America’s large farmers expect input prices to soar by over 12 percent this year which adds to the many inflation fears. The monthly ag economy barometer fell by five points in November to the lowest reading since the spring of 2020. Purdue said rising production cost concerns are leading to weakness in farmer sentiment.

I personally feel we shouldn’t go overboard on locking in prices just yet since we never know when everything will go back down. One way we can all protect ourselves against these high input prices is by making some forward cash sales of corn and soybeans for the coming season as long as these decent prices hold. This can offset a major operating loss in case crop prices tank by next fall.

Our family had another great time attending last weekend’s annual convention of the Illinois Association of Agricultural Fairs in Springfield. After a year away in 2021, it was great to be back at the Crowne Plaza Hotel and Conference Center. I once again emceed the Friday night entertainment showcase where county fairs across the state book their acts for the coming summer.