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Has market high been reached?

BLOOMINGTON – The big move to the upside from the low we saw in April 2020 might have come to an end for crop prices.

“This big move up in commodity prices and crude oil, at least for now, might have paused,” Dale Durchholz of Grain Cycles told the Central Illinois Farm Network last week.

We could see a temporary low with strength and rebounds going forward. Durchholz feels markets may move slightly higher into January or February with renewed strength in the short-term.

“I don’t know if we are going to have any runaway bull to the upside.”

With the dollar remaining strong, that typically works against commodity prices.

South American weather is something many are closely monitoring with a La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. The weather there is developing into a drier pattern but there has been some shower activity.

“There isn’t anything in the weather – even on a day to day basis here right now that suggests you sell the market hard or you really buy it hard thinking things are going to get better or going to get worse down in that area,” explained Durchholz.

This is leaving growers with a wait and see attitude.

When it comes to the recent December report, USDA really did not say anything shocking. Generally, few changes are made to the December numbers since they tend to make quite a few changes in November. Now everyone waits to see what the January reports say.


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