Better opportunities coming?

February 12, 2020

 

BLOOMINGTON – There are better marketing opportunities ahead, according to Joe Camp with Agrivisor.

 

Camp believes there are still chances for lower supply side revisions to come in future USDA reports. He suggests making incremental marketing efforts.

 

“We are focused a lot on the demand side,” Camp told those attending a crop meeting at Evergreen FS in Bloomington.

 

With the supply side already set, now we start to shift our focus on how to use this crop. The real question is if we have follow through with the Chinese trade deal. Camp feels there is still a chance for China to come in and make major purchases.

 

“The market will absolutely take notice if the Chinese are buying soybeans in March or April,” Camp noted.

 

China can either start buying now or wait until later in the year to start playing catch-up. There is still a possibility of seeing better price support in response to that. Big crops raised around the world since 2012 have led to a drop in prices.

 

“Maybe we are seeing a shift in the trend-line,” Camp admitted.

 

Camp notes it is becoming less likely to see major producers in the world go without a major weather event to impact production. Now may be the time to implement the phase one trade deal, but there are many risks out there including Iran tensions and the coronavirus. Many wonder if China has the capacity to unload soybeans and put them into the system.

 

“The coronavirus is a risk that can stick with us.”

 

These risks are getting in the way of seeing better prices now. Camp predicts better opportunities for crop sales in the late spring and summer period, as demand is still there.

“There are still a lot of hungry mouths to feed around the world,” explained Camp.

 

Long-term demand growth is out pacing supply in the world. Demand is growing at a pace which has Camp optimistic for a potential recovery. Camp thinks the dollar is starting to come down in value which should help commodity exports.

 

Current marketing strategies include small sales early on and bigger sales when we get close to elevated price targets. We have weather risk premium locked into the market, according to Camp.

 

Tips for success in 2020 include: focusing on profit, selling in smaller quantities, knowing marketing alternatives, seeking advice and having a plan you can stick to.

 

“Look for base hits over home runs,” Camp concluded.

 

Tuesday’s meeting in Bloomington also included representatives from COUNTRY Financial discussing crop insurance and farm program options and information from the McLean County FSA office.

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