View from the Cab: Keeping momentum

October 7, 2019

 

Corn and soybean prices may have ended September on a positive note, but how can we keep this market momentum going throughout the harvest season?

 

I spoke with Wayne Nelson of L&M Commodities last week and he believes a number of things must fall into place to keep prices higher. First of all, it would be nice if we didn’t see such good rains in South America. Brazil has seen decent precipitation but Argentina has dry areas.

 

“We are not wishing for a frost for anybody but sooner than later sure wouldn’t be bad up in northern Iowa to sort of slow down their corn,” Nelson said.

 

The biggest factor in the world currently is getting USMCA voted on and settled. Also, a Chinese deal would help the ag economy. Throwing some ethanol in with that package would help boost corn prices. The upcoming October USDA report could also influence prices one way or another as we are not going to have near as much harvested for the report as we generally have this time of year.

 

“It’s going to be way behind,” notes Nelson.

 

Weather delays are already a problem this fall for some farmers across the Midwest. Many growers will start harvesting before stopping and having to wait a week just like they did during planting. Nelson has observed great variability in the corn harvested so far with yields ranging anywhere from 95-255 bushels per acre.

 

“Most everybody is down 10-15 bushels from what their yields were last year for corn.”

 

Soybeans have been running in the 48-58 bushel range in many fields. Nelson has heard low yields near 30 and highs of around 74 bushels per acre on soybeans.

 

Last week’s crop progress report for Illinois from USDA-NASS still showed minimal harvest activity in the state for the week ending Sept. 29. Only 40 percent of corn was actually mature with corn harvest at four percent complete, compared to 45 percent last year at this time and 30 percent for the five-year average. Soybean harvest was one percent complete.

 

(The View from the Cab is powered by Petersen Chevy-Buick in Fairbury)

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