Wet start doesn't mean bad year

April 12, 2019

 

A wet spring and delayed planting doesn’t always signify a poor production year for corn and soybeans.

 

Dan Zwicker of Zwicker Consulting says years with wet weather early typically have trend-line yields or even above average results. One of the rare years when rain did not make grain, however, was in 1993.

 

“The trade right now isn’t really too concerned about the wetness,” Zwicker told The Central Illinois Farm Network this week.

 

Zwicker believes the current weather pattern is part of a solar cycle where the temperatures tend to stay cooler than normal. He expects this to continue as we go through the growing season.

 

“It’s a little too early for the market to respond to any planting delays or acreage losses,” Zwicker said. “I would say May 1 would be a good check point.”

 

Historically, traders haven’t become too concerned with weather delays until mid-May. Zwicker feels there could be pricing opportunities in the coming months as the odds favor highs in the May-August time frame.

 

“I would probably be more inclined to think June or July is when the pricing opportunities will occur this year.”

 

When looking back over 45 years, the only time with calendar year highs comes during the first three or four months of the year. This occurs following a short crop with high harvest prices, which carries into the following months.

 

“We are coming off a record harvest so the market has never really put together any kind of meaningful rally,” Zwicker explained.

 

We did manage to bounce off of August lows with slightly higher fall prices, but have experienced a mostly sideways trading pattern since. The big corn stocks number USDA issued at the end of March was a shocker to many as there were new contract lows. This indicates a lack of bullish news coming at us anytime soon.

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