Prices were sharply lower following Friday’s USDA report after the agency predicted corn and soybean yields near the high end of trader’s estimates.
Corn yields were increased from 174 to 178.4 bushels per acre with the average trade expectations at 176.2. World ending corn stocks were increased 3.53 million metric tons to 155.49 with the average trade estimate at 152.59. Soybean yields increased from 49.1 to 51.6 bushels per acre with average expectations at 49.6. World soybean stocks were increased 7.67 million metric tons to 105.94 with the trade estimating 99.33.
According to Merrill Crowley with Midwest Market Solutions in Watseka, the reason for the increase in corn yield was an ear weight that was the third highest in the last 15 years and the highest ear count per acre. Also, with the current weather problems in Canada, Australia, the EU, Ukraine and Russia, the trade was looking for more of a decline in world wheat stocks.
The next USDA report is Tuesday, Sept. 12 with Supply and Demand information.
Illinois Crop Production report (from USDA-NASS):
Corn: Planted area is estimated at 11.00 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.85 million acres, is down 1 percent from 2017. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois corn yield is forecast at a record 207 bushels per acre, up 6 bushels from 2017. Production is forecast at 2.25 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last year’s production.
Soybeans: Planted area is estimated at 10.90 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.85 million acres, is up 3 percent from 2017. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois soybean yield is forecast at 64 bushels per acre, up 6 bushels from 2017. Production is forecast at 694 million bushels, up 13 percent from 2017 and the highest production level on record for Illinois.
Winter wheat: Harvested area in 2018 is forecast at 550,000 acres, up 17 percent from the previous year. The winter wheat yield is forecast at 66 bushels per acre, down 10 bushels from 2017. Production is forecast at 36.3 million bushels, 2 percent above the previous year.