Thursday’s USDA report was referred to as a “bearish surprise” by one market analyst.
Merrill Crowley from Crowley Commodities in Watseka says it is difficult to stay positive after seeing the numbers released in the Aug. 10 report. USDA gave us 169.5 for the corn yield, which is 3.6 bushels above the average estimate. Soybean yield is at 49.4, 3 bushels per acre above the average expectation. Corn settled 12-15 cents lower, soybeans were down 24-33 cents with wheat 20 cents lower at the close Thursday.
“If the numbers are true, then you’re going to be looking at discussions about the farm economic problems getting even more serious,” Crowley told The Central Illinois Farm Network.
Crowley feels we are possibly facing a situation where this will be the largest yield and we will move down from there. Prior to Thursday’s report, everybody had anticipated the corn crop would get smaller.
“I’ve talked to farmers who think they are going to have about the same yield as last year and some maybe even better. That’s just the spottiness of the weather.”
According to Crowley, the USDA may be missing something.
Illinois Crop Production Report:
Corn: Planted area is estimated at 11.10 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.95 million acres, is also down 4 percent from 2016. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois corn yield is forecast at 188 bushels per acre, down 9 bushels from 2016. Production is forecast at 2.06 billion bushels, down 9 percent from last year’s production. If realized, this would be the third highest yield on record.
Soybeans: Planted area is estimated at 10.40 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 10.34 million acres, is up 3 percent from 2016. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois soybean yield is forecast at 58 bushels per acre, a 1 bushel decrease from 2016. Production is forecast at 600 million bushels, up 1 percent from 2016 and the highest production level on record for Illinois.
Winter wheat: Harvested area in 2017 is forecast at 490,000 acres, up 4 percent from the previous year. The winter wheat yield is forecast at 74 bushels per acre, the same as 2016. If realized, this will tie the record high yield. Production is forecast at 36.3 million bushels, 4 percent above the previous year.