Friday was quite a day for the markets with the release of the August USDA report, which finally had some numbers to really use.
U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 175.1 bushels per acre, up 6.7 bushels from 2015. This would be the highest yield and production on record for the U.S. Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.06 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last year. Bean yields are expected to average 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last year.
“By the time the day was over, we were posting green numbers on the board, not big, but up a cent or cent and a half in the corn,” said Wayne Nelson of L&M Commodities.
Now many will watch to see if prices stabilize. Fall beans saw some basis increases on Friday and upcoming crop tours will tell us more about this year’s crops.
“A lot of people are feeling that maybe some of this dry weather the last two weeks is going to cut into kernel and pod fill as we go along,” added Nelson.
Illinois crop production info:
Corn: Planted area is estimated at 11.7 million acres, unchanged from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 11.5 million acres, is also unchanged from 2015. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois corn yield is forecast at 200 bushels per acre, up 25 bushels from 2015. Production is forecast at 2.30 billion bushels, up 14 percent from last year’s production. If realized this would tie the 2014 record corn yield and be the second highest production on record behind 2014.
Soybeans: Planted area is estimated at 9.90 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. Harvested area, forecast at 9.84 million acres, is up 1 percent from 2015. Based on August 1 conditions, the Illinois soybean yield is forecast at 57 bushels per acre, a 1 bushel increase from 2015. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record for the state.
Winter wheat: Harvested area in 2016 is forecast at 520,000 acres, the same as the previous year. The winter wheat yield is forecast at a record high 75 bushels per acre, up 10 bushels from 2015. Production is forecast at 39.0 million bushels, 15 percent above the previous year.